A Halting Muddle

Polarization in America is inevitably tied to paralysis in Congress. With a nation so deeply divided on so many issues, it’s no wonder Congress can’t agree on most issues. From traditional pocket book issues to more recent controversies around hot-button social issues, there seems to be a deep rift between right and left, between the coasts and “fly over country,†that can’t be easily closed. And as the political parties continue to re-align, Republicans toward to the blue collar voters and Democrats toward highly educated voters, it appears the chasm may continue to grow. In practical terms, we may have entered an era where no party has a clear long term advantage. We are not likely to see the kind of dominance by one party that Democrats held from the 1950s to the 1990s. That means the House of Representatives may flip every few election cycles depending on the macro-environment and the strength of grassroots organizing. Don’t except consistent policy directions from Congress until the electorate itself produces a clear winner – right or left. Importantly, such a lack of consistency alters the incentives for politicians. Push as hard for as much change as possible because you might lose power in 2 to 4 years. Short term gain over long term fundamentals. The end result: a halting muddle for as far as the eye can see.